Important: Backtested performance is hypothetical, has limitations, and does not guarantee future results. All results shown are from a pilot backtest on a limited sample and should not be extrapolated as indicative of future performance. This is not investment advice.

Model Performance

Live rating distribution across 700+ stocks, recent rating changes, and historical pilot backtest results.

Historical Backtest (Pilot Study)

Results from a limited pilot study on S&P 500 constituents (June 2023 – December 2024). This is a past study — not a live track record. Live track record data based on daily rating snapshots is being accumulated and will expand over time.

Data Sources

• Daily OHLCV via Yahoo Finance (adjusted close)

• Regime labels from Apter composite breadth model

• Signal grades from Apter multi-factor scoring engine

Universe: S&P 500 constituents · Period: 2023-06-01 to 2024-12-31 · Generated: 2025-01-15

Total Signals

2,847

Date Range

2023-06-01 to 2024-12-31

Top–Bottom Spread

+3.46%

Return Horizon

Weekly, equal-weight within bucket

Pilot backtest (limited sample)

MEAN 5-DAY RETURN BY SIGNAL RATING

CUMULATIVE RETURN — TOP VS BOTTOM QUINTILE

Cumulative returns are hypothetical and assume weekly equal-weight rebalancing with no transaction costs or slippage.

BUCKET BREAKDOWN

Bucket	Rating Range	Signals	Mean Return	Median Return	Win Rate	Worst	Best
Strong Bearish	1 – 2	312	-1.82%	-1.45%	38.1%	-9.70%	+4.20%
Weak Bearish	3 – 4	487	-0.54%	-0.31%	44.8%	-7.30%	+5.10%
Neutral	5 – 6	891	+0.12%	+0.08%	51.2%	-6.10%	+6.80%
Bullish	7 – 8	724	+0.87%	+0.63%	57.3%	-5.40%	+8.20%
Strong Bullish	9 – 10	433	+1.64%	+1.21%	63.5%	-4.10%	+11.30%

QUINTILE SPREAD

Top Quintile (9–10) Mean

+1.64%

Bottom Quintile (1–2) Mean

-1.82%

Spread

+3.46%

Difference between top-quintile (grade 9–10) and bottom-quintile (grade 1–2) mean 5-day returns

METHODOLOGY & ASSUMPTIONS

Universe: S&P 500 constituents. Stocks that were delisted or had insufficient liquidity during the test period were excluded.

Signal generation: Apter's multi-factor scoring engine assigns each stock a rating from 1 (weak) to 10 (elite) based on growth, profitability, financial strength, momentum, valuation, and risk inputs. Ratings are generated at end-of-day.

Return calculation: Forward 5-day returns are measured from the close of the signal date to the close 5 trading days later, using adjusted close prices.

Rebalancing: Weekly, equal-weight within bucket. No transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Real-world execution would reduce returns.

Survivorship bias: The universe is based on current S&P 500 constituents, which introduces survivorship bias. Stocks that were removed from the index during the period are not included.

Look-ahead bias: Signals use only data available at the close of the signal date. No future information is used in rating calculation.

Sample limitation: This is a pilot backtest covering a single 19-month period. Statistical significance varies by bucket. Results from a single period may not generalize.

Disclosures

Backtested performance is hypothetical, has limitations, and does not guarantee future results.

For informational/educational use only. Not investment advice. No guarantee of future results.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.